In January 2024, I made a video where I predicted Tesla would be valued at $4 trillion in 2029. Since then, things have changed. Elon is working at the White House, not the Tesla factories, and does not have a compensation plan with Tesla. Full list of changes and analsyis here. If Elon circles back to working hard for Tesla, and the team executes well, Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap in 2029. This is a low-confidence and optimistic prediction. I have sold the majority of my Tesla shares. I sold in January at $432.10. The price is now under $300.

• Elon does not have a compensation plan from Tesla
• There is a global smear campaign against Elon, and therefore Tesla
• Chinese companies, especially BYD, are taking market share from Tesla
• Tesla’s vehicle deliveries shrank in 2024 and will likely shrink again in 2025
• Consumers, including myself, are choosing hybrids with autopilot over more expensive, less range EVs
• Waymo beat Tesla to market with driverless robotaxis
• Tesla’s FSD system still is not ready for a robotaxi network, and has approval in zero cities as of March ‘25
• Tax credits for EVs could be reduced or eliminated
• The Cybertruck is looking like a flop, losing money for Tesla, instead of earning profits like many thought it would
• It does not appear Elon is actively recruiting top talent to work for Tesla. The original geniuses who built Tesla have left.
• A new technology, EREVs, Extended-Range EVs, is taking market share in international markets. It’s an EV with a small gasoline generator on board for the occasional long trip. This allows owners to get the cost savings of an EV, but also leverage the ubiquity of gas stations for long trips.

Tesla’s vehicle business will not be able to prop up the current trillion-dollar valuation (it has since fallen since writing this). It all comes down to Robotaxi and their humanoid robot project, Optimus. I think both of these products will reach the market by 2029, but Tesla will have substantial competition and slower than expected revenue/earnings growth. If Elon circles back to working hard for Tesla, and the team executes well, Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap in 2029. This is a low-confidence and optimistic prediction. I have sold the majority of my Tesla shares.