Claude: Tesla (TSLA) Fair Valuation

Incorporating -10% Revenue Growth in 2025

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model - Revised

Key Assumptions

Base Financial Data

Current Annual Revenue: $96.8 billion (TTM)
Operating Margin: 11.5% (current)
Shares Outstanding: 3.18 billion
Current Cash: $26.8 billion
Current Debt: $7.2 billion

Growth and Margin Projections - Revised

Year	Revenue Growth	Revenue ($B)	Operating Margin	EBIT ($B)
2025	-10.0%	87.1	10.0%	8.7
2026	12.0%	97.6	11.0%	10.7
2027	15.0%	112.2	12.0%	13.5
2028	16.0%	130.2	13.0%	16.9
2029	14.0%	148.4	14.0%	20.8
2030	13.0%	167.7	15.0%	25.2
2031	12.0%	187.8	15.5%	29.1
2032	10.0%	206.6	16.0%	33.1
2033	8.0%	223.1	16.5%	36.8
2034	6.0%	236.5	17.0%	40.2

Capital Requirements and FCF Calculations - Revised

Year	EBIT ($B)	Tax Rate	NOPAT ($B)	D&A ($B)	Capex ($B)	Δ Working Capital ($B)	FCF ($B)
2025	8.7	20%	7.0	5.2	6.5	-1.1	6.8
2026	10.7	20%	8.6	5.8	7.3	1.2	5.9
2027	13.5	20%	10.8	6.7	8.4	1.6	7.5
2028	16.9	20%	13.5	7.8	9.8	2.0	9.5
2029	20.8	20%	16.6	8.9	10.4	2.0	13.1
2030	25.2	20%	20.1	10.1	11.7	2.1	16.4
2031	29.1	20%	23.3	11.3	13.1	2.2	19.3
2032	33.1	20%	26.4	12.4	14.5	2.1	22.2
2033	36.8	20%	29.5	13.4	15.6	1.8	25.5
2034	40.2	20%	32.2	14.2	16.5	1.5	28.4

DCF Valuation Parameters

WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital): 9.5%
Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0%
Terminal Value Multiple: 15x FCF

Calculation of Present Value Terminal Value = $28.4B × (1 + 3.0%) / (9.5% - 3.0%) = $458.6B

Year	FCF ($B)	Discount Factor	PV of FCF ($B)
2025	6.8	0.913	6.2
2026	5.9	0.834	4.9
2027	7.5	0.762	5.7
2028	9.5	0.696	6.6
2029	13.1	0.635	8.3
2030	16.4	0.580	9.5
2031	19.3	0.530	10.2
2032	22.2	0.484	10.7
2033	25.5	0.442	11.3
2034	28.4	0.403	11.4
Terminal Value	458.6	0.403	184.8